On Wednesday afternoon, just as Kamala Harris began her concession speech at Howard University, three Bates politics professors talked about the various outcomes and implications of Tuesday’s election — including Donald Trump’s convincing victory and a TBD Congressional victory for a Maine Democrat and Bates alumnus in Trump territory.
Professors John Baughman, Stephen Engel, and Clarisa Pérez-Armendáriz spoke with around 75 students, joined by faculty and staff, in Memorial Commons in Chase Hall.
Each professor offered brief opening remarks, followed by questions. Here are some takeaways from their observations.
And There’s More
Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies Tyler Austin Harper has published two post-election analyses: “What We Just Went Through Wasn’t an Election. It Was a Hostage Situation,” in The New York Times, and “Blame Biden,” in The Atlantic.
Clarisa Pérez-Armendáriz’s Opening Remarks
Pérez-Armendáriz, an associate professor of politics and member of the Program in Latin U.S. and Latinx Studies, explored how international migrants shape citizenship, political behavior, and representation in migrant-sending countries.
Here are a few takeaways from her opening comments:
High Turnout Showcased the Strength of U.S. Democracy
“It is really important to celebrate that that election happened and it was so vibrant — not just yesterday but in the weeks leading up to it. There was so much energy and mobilization and education. That is phenomenal, and it’s something that we should feel we can show the rest of the world.”
Regardless of one’s view of the outcome, Pérez-Armendáriz asks us to recognize how citizen engagement in the 2024 election proves our democracy’s vibrancy and resilience, a model to inspire other nations.
Absence of Election Violence and Fraud Claims Signals Stability
“We’re not in a position where the entire electoral system is under attack with lawsuits and allegations of fraud. Another thing that didn’t happen is widespread electoral violence.”
Pérez-Armendáriz pointed to the lack of disputes or violence as signaling a level of democratic stability that may help reinforce confidence in the U.S. electoral system.
A Window of Opportunity to Strengthen Trust in Elections
“We now have time, a window of opportunity, to really think about what we can do in two to four years to shore up trust in the electoral system by shoring up the system itself.”
While the 2024 election went smoothly, Pérez-Armendáriz sees a chance to reinforce public trust in the electoral process and strengthen it from attacks by bad actors.
Republican Dominance Reflects Party Strength, Beyond Trump
“This election signaled a mandate for the Republican Party, not specifically to Trump, particularly as it has evolved over the past eight years.”
Pérez-Armendáriz suggested that the election results represent a shift not just toward Trump but toward the Republican Party’s broader ideology and evolution over recent years. “If people keep going back to this just being Trump, Trump, Trump, they’re missing a really big thing.”
Democrats Must Reflect on Election Loss Without Disdain for Voters
“The [Democratic Party] failed to convince voters. But rather than call the people who [voted Republican] racist, sexist, uneducated — all the things we come up with — Democrats need to do some serious introspection.”
Pérez-Armendáriz asserted Democrats should approach the loss with humility and introspection rather than by disparaging voters.
The Threat of Democratic Backsliding May Come Through Party Power
Pérez-Armendáriz: “I came from Mexico. Trump is not a populist leader. He’s a leader with deep institutional power and a strong party. People talk about things like freedom of press. But we should look at how parties take up power in a way that keeps them in power forever or for a long time.
Pérez-Armendáriz suggested that instead of dismantling institutions, threats to democracy may emerge as entrenched party power that leverages government institutions for long-term dominance.
John Baughman’s Opening Remarks
Baughman, who is a professor of politics, specializes in U.S. politics including the development of the U.S. Congress and how members reshaped the institution in order to respond to constituent demand.
Here are a few takeaways from his opening comments:
The Election Was a Broad Anti-Incumbent Wave Driven by Economic Perceptions
“This was at least to some degree, not entirely, but at least some degree, an anti-incumbent election that seems to have been motivated by the economy.”
Baughman interpreted the results as a broad rejection of incumbents, driven in large part by public dissatisfaction with economic conditions, even if objectively the economy was relatively strong.
Voter Psychology Prioritizes Recent Experiences Over Abstractions
“We tend to respond to things that have happened recently rather than things that have happened more distantly, or things that are hypotheticals or counterfactuals or more abstract. Even after inflation got under control, people were still remembering not very far in the past this feeling of having to pay so much more than they had before.”
Baughman explained that while economic data had shown improvements, many voters focused on their day-to-day experiences, like the cost of groceries and gas, which influenced their views.
Alignments Based on Class Are Reshaping Party Coalitions
“There’s been a general shift, observed since at least 2016, of people with lower household income and less formal education shifting from the Democrats to Republicans, and, conversely, households with higher income and more formal education shifting from the Republicans to the Democrats. There now seems to be an increasing class split.”
According to Baughman, socioeconomic factors may increasingly be shaping political affiliations, as voters with lower incomes — who were traditionally Democratic supporters — show a growing preference for the Republican Party.
Claims of a “Mandate” Are a Political Tool, Not an Objective Reality
“Mandates in any objective sense are not a real thing. What presidents do is they claim a mandate when they win.”
While Trump declared that he and the Republican Party had received an “unprecedented mandate” from voters, most any claim of a mandate by a winning candidate is merely a rhetorical tool to advance a policy agenda rather than an indication of broad-based consensus.
Trump’s Policy Priorities Are Often Delegated to His Supporters
“Honestly, there aren’t that many issues that Trump is personally invested in. A lot of what we hear him talking about are these transactional relationships that he has with allies. It’s a way to reward them for support in getting them elected.”
Baughman posited that Trump’s approach to governance often involves delegating policy responsibility to allies, especially in areas he is less personally invested in. This strategy allows him to reward those who supported his campaign, such as potentially giving Robert Kennedy Jr. responsibility for health policy. Trump’s administration may focus more on utilizing these alliances for political gain rather than prioritizing specific issues himself.
Foreign Election Disruptions Highlight Persistent Challenges to Election Security
“According to the FBI, a foreign adversary, Russia, was doing this specifically to disrupt the election and to target Democratic strongholds.”
While election-day violence was minimal, foreign threats remain a concern, particularly as they target specific demographics to influence election outcomes. According to the FBI, bomb threats on Election Day appeared “to originate from Russian email domains.”
Stephen Engel’s Opening Remarks
Engel, a professor of politics and associate dean of the faculty, focuses on U.S. political development, constitutional law, and social movements, particularly LGBTQ+ socio-political and legal mobilization.
Here are a few takeaways from his opening comments:
Votes on Reproductive Rights Show Fragmented Values
“People voted to reinstate rights that they lost, and then they voted for the person who helped take those rights away.”
Engel was referring to a “confusing” paradox, where abortion rights amendments passed in seven states (and failed in three), highlighted how voters seem to support reproductive rights while simultaneously electing a president whose party has restricted reproductive rights.
The Supreme Court’s Path May Lead to a Nationwide Abortion Ban
“It’s very possible by 2026 or even 2028 we will have a 7–2 split in the Supreme Court, and it is very plausible that the court will find that abortion is wholly unconstitutional in the United States.”
With potential SCOTUS retirements of Clarence Thomas and Thomas Alito, and possibly Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor due to health issues, Engel warned that the Supreme Court could rule abortion unconstitutional across the U.S., if the 14th Amendment is read to provide protection for fetal personhood.
Anti-Trans Rhetoric Points to a Deepening Denial of Shared Humanity
“I see anti-trans panic as premised on a fundamentally troubling denial of our shared humanity.”
Anti-trans rhetoric during the presidential campaign, used to discredit Democratic priorities, reveals a deeper societal problem: a denial of the dignity and humanity of transgender individuals.
An oft-run commercial during the campaign mocked Kamala Harris’ support for gender-affirming care for individuals who are incarcerated, but “that’s actually a policy that was passed through during the Trump administration, but she got tagged with it,” Engel says.
U.S. Political Culture’s Tension Between Equality and Exclusion
Engel: “We have traditions that emphasize equality, respect, and opportunity, but we also have traditions that are deeply rooted in racism and misogyny.”
Referring to the work of scholar Rogers Smith, Engel noted that U.S. civic identity oscillates between ideals of equality and exclusion, with those latter including elements of white supremacy and male supremacy. Elections often reflect which side of this legacy the nation leans into.
Democracy Demands Defense Against Anti-Democratic Forces
“Democracy only works over time when there is fundamental agreement that the opposition will always be loyal to the U.S. Constitution. From my perspective as a constitutional lawyer and a constitutional theorist, it’s something we really need to wrestle with.”
U.S. institutions, including higher education, must defend democratic values actively; those who fundamentally oppose these principles should not have a seat at the table.
Is There a Counterweight to the Successful Conservative Legal Movement?
“This is a 50-year movement that built schools, fellowships, and organizational networks to create an infrastructure that helps to explain last night’s outcome. Where’s the counterweight to that?”
Engel was referring to research by constitutional law professor Amanda Hollis-Brusky of Pomona College (who spoke at Bates in October during the Election 2024 series) and others who have explored the rise and success of the conservative legal movement, and asking where was the countermovement.
Responses to a Student Question about LGBTQ Rights
Federalism May Offer LGBTQ Protections Amid Shifting National Policies
“Federalism will continue. And I think that’s going to be some of the space for LGBTQ rights.”
Engel suggested that state-level protections could play a crucial role in securing rights for LGBTQ communities, with states like Maine, New York, and California likely providing more robust safeguards than others. Three states removed anti-marriage-equality language from their state constitutions: California, Colorado, and Hawaii.
Unified Government Could Pose Risks for LGBTQ Health Care Access
Engel: “From a standpoint of healthcare, this is a clear vulnerability for LGBTQ communities.”
He expressed concern that a unified government could weaken protections for LGBTQ health care, pointing to potential changes in policies affecting access and affordability, which may follow from any changes to the Affordable Care Act.
Division within LGBTQ Community Could Hinder Collective Progress
“There’s a split in the LGBTQ community. Our community has a long history of throwing [some members] under the bus.”
Engel noted a divide within the LGBTQ community, and how those in the community who might fit the description as cisgender, gay, wealthy white men have not always supported transgender individuals. “I think we just need to be aware of it.”
Civil Society Organizations Remain a Critical Support for LGBTQ Rights
“There is a robust civil society of organizations around LGBTQ rights, and I believe those will be sustained and supported.”
Despite the challenges, Engel expressed hope in the ongoing support provided by civil society organizations, which continue to serve as vital resources for advocacy and protection of LGBTQ rights. “Civil society organizations are places to go for solace and support.”
Pérez-Armendáriz on Public Service Careers
The Importance of Diversity in Government and Public Service
“We need to be diverse. People need to be self-selecting into government, into public service jobs.”
Pérez-Armendáriz emphasized the need for more diverse representation in government positions, arguing that under the previous Trump administration, many students felt disconnected from the government because they didn’t see themselves reflected in it. She encouraged students to consider public service roles and not to dismiss them out of fear, stressing that diverse voices are essential to making a difference.
Responses to a Student Question about Deportation and Immigration
Immigration Reform Likely, But Not Mass Deportations
“Whatever happens with immigration, it’s going to look really different than just a presidentially driven mass deportation.”
While the Trump administration may use the bureaucracy to stall decisions, mass deportation isn’t likely to occur. Instead, she anticipates comprehensive immigration reform in the coming years, “which goes deeper than a mass deportation.” Students are wise to pay attention to the workings of the federal bureaucracy, she added.
Pérez-Armendáriz encouraged students to seek out civil society organizations for support and to prepare for potential challenges in the coming years.
Resistance Could Limit Mass Deportations
“Anything approaching mass deportation would be met with real resistance by community leaders, employers, and private actors.”
Baughman highlighted that while Trump may attempt administrative actions through executive orders, significant limits exist, especially with congressional involvement. Resistance from various sectors and bipartisan input could prevent extreme deportation measures from being implemented fully.
Response by Baughman to a Staff Question about Bates alumnus Jared Golden’s re-election
In Maine, Jared Golden ’11 is still waiting to learn if he pulled off what few Democratic Congressional candidates did this year, winning a seat in a district that voted strongly for Trump.
As of Friday afternoon, the Associated Press had not yet called the race. The result will depend on the state’s ranked-choice voting format.
Golden represents Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (basically everything Lewiston northward). In 2020, the district went for Trump by 6 percentage points, but Golden squeezed out a 2 percent win. Entering this year’s election, he was one of just five Democratic House members whose districts went to Trump in 2020.
Bates has two alumni in Congress; Rep. Ben Cline ’94 (R-Va.) easily won re-election.
Golden’s Unique Challenge in a Trump-Dominant District
“He faced more headwinds than really any other Democratic incumbent in the country. The only way he had any chance of holding onto that seat is by winning over substantial numbers of Trump voters.”
Baughman highlighted the political challenge Golden faced in a solidly pro-Trump, requiring an appeal to voters who typically lean Republican.
Democratic Party’s Strategic Focus on Golden’s Seat
“Democratic leaders in the House recognize the kind of district he’s in and the kinds of choices that he had to make.”
Golden’s seat is vital to the Democrats’ chances of retaining control of the House, said Baughman. Party leaders understood the district’s dynamics and the risks Golden took to maintain his position.
The Trump-Golden Coexistence
Baughman: “If you go around the 2nd District, you’d see yards with a Trump sign and a Golden sign every so often, and he needed that.”
Golden’s strategy was to coexist with Trump’s influence, acknowledging that his campaign needed to resonate with some of the district’s staunchly Republican voters for success.
Golden’s Risky Shift on Gun Control
“He took a huge risk in shifting his position on gun control and doing it so publicly.”
Golden’s decision to change his stance on gun control after the Lewiston mass shootings in 2023 was a key moment in his campaign, one that made him a target for Republicans but was crucial in appealing to voters who favored gun control.
Responses by Baughman and Engel to a Student Question on Voter Turnout
Harris Turned Out More Voters, But Trump Mobilized Even More
“Harris did well in turning out voters. In Georgia counties that Biden won in 2020, she had turned out 1 percent more voters than he had. The difference was Trump turned out far more in the counties that he won.”
While Harris did manage to increase voter turnout in some of the key areas Biden had won, Baughman said, Trump’s supporters, particularly in his stronghold counties, far outpaced her efforts, underscoring his broader ability to mobilize voters.
“A lot of people misunderstood the degree to which a network of Trump supporters, and I think especially the role of white evangelical churches, to mobilize people outside conventional party organizations.”
Fear and Anger Are Powerful Motivators for Voter Turnout
“Fear and anger are powerful motivators. There’s plenty of campaign election rhetoric research to bear it out. It’s a better way to motivate people to vote than messages of hope and promise.”
Baughman pointed to the effectiveness of fear and anger in rallying voters, arguing that such emotions have a stronger effect than positive messages of hope, which was a key factor in Trump’s ability to turn out voters even without traditional campaign structures.
Trump’s Victimhood Narrative Is Part of His Appeal
Engel: “Donald Trump is exceptional at playing the persecuted victim. He was able to transmogrify all of his extraordinarily legitimate trials into political persecution.”
Engel pointed out how Trump leveraged his legal troubles and framed himself as a victim of political persecution. This narrative of victimhood resonated with many voters, particularly those who feel left behind adding to the populist appeal of his rhetoric.
Harris’ Remarkable Campaign Despite Challenges
“Given what Harris was given to work with and the time that she had, she ran a remarkable campaign.”
Baughman emphasized that despite the difficulties Harris faced, including limited time and resources, her campaign performed better than expected. Her approval ratings improved over the course of the election — a rare outcome for a losing candidate.
Pérez-Armendáriz on Reclaiming How We Communicate
Words of Fear and Anger Are Filtering into the Culture
“Listen to children right now on the playground — it’s filtering down, right? This is getting into the culture of how people talk to each other. We have social media transmitting ways of talking about the opposition, how you talk about enemies and so forth. Little whispers in our ears.”
Be aware how the barrage of negative political rhetoric, fueled by bad actors wielding social media in powerful ways, is filtering down to everyday conversations, said Pérez-Armendariz. It’s influencing how we interact in profound ways.
